Brent · About 1 week
upside pressure
$127.71
Scenario range $119.54–$137.58, from a $117.70 rolling futures close on 30 Oct 2026.
- News evidence
- higher corroboration
- Recent move
- +0.84%
- News adjustment
- +7.72%
- Target session
- 06 Nov 2026
Oil price outlook and scenario lab.
Explore where WTI or Brent could go using transparent historical ranges, current futures behavior, source-linked news pressure and your own assumptions. The tool describes possible outcomes—it does not know the future or recommend a trade.
Start with the latest oil market brief, compare the WTI and Brent price pages or the full oil benchmark workspace, and inspect the Brent–WTI spread. Check our forecast track record against the price archive. The contract guide explains rollover, the Brent–WTI guide explains benchmark differences, and the methodology documents sources and limits. For supply context, review the US oil balance and dated refinery evidence.
News and futures pressure monitor.
A scheduled analysis checks trusted reporting, measures recent rolling front-month futures behavior and rebuilds two scenario horizons every three hours, after the 15-minute market-data checks.
Brent · About 1 month
upside pressure
$142.02
Scenario range $128.87–$163.17, from a $117.70 rolling futures close on 30 Oct 2026.
- News evidence
- higher corroboration
- Recent move
- +15.11%
- News adjustment
- +15.44%
- Target session
- 27 Nov 2026
WTI · About 1 week
upside pressure
$107.32
Scenario range $100.09–$116.81, from a $99.73 rolling futures close on 02 Nov 2026.
- News evidence
- higher corroboration
- Recent move
- -1.99%
- News adjustment
- +7.76%
- Target session
- 09 Nov 2026
WTI · About 1 month
upside pressure
$118.80
Scenario range $108.52–$138.62, from a $99.73 rolling futures close on 02 Nov 2026.
- News evidence
- higher corroboration
- Recent move
- +11.52%
- News adjustment
- +15.53%
- Target session
- 30 Nov 2026
Scenario, not a promise. “Higher corroboration” describes the freshness and number of independent news sources—not the chance that the price will be correct. Markets may already reflect public news, and unexpected resolution or demand destruction can reverse the pressure.
Compare the underlying futures markets.
Our stored history is a rolling front-month reference, so a contract rollover can affect the line. Use the exchange pages to inspect named contracts and delayed market data before drawing a conclusion.
CME WTI futures and contract months →
ICE Brent futures and contract months →
A complete multi-contract curve, volume and open interest are not silently scraped into this model; public redistribution requires appropriate market-data rights.
Test a benchmark and horizon.
Results use stored rolling front-month futures references through the displayed source date. Contract rollover can affect the line.
Loading the historical outlook…
Latest futures reference
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Historical median outcome
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Middle 80% of past outcomes
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Comparable periods
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Range, not certainty. “Middle 80%” means the 10th-to-90th percentile of overlapping historical returns. It is not an 80% probability forecast, and an extreme event can fall outside it.
Compare simple models before trusting one.
A complicated model is not automatically better. Each error below comes from a walk-forward check in which only information available at that earlier date is used.
| Approach | Scenario value | Historical error | What it assumes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading model comparison… | |||
Historical error is mean absolute percentage error across the selected window. Lower was better in that backtest, but it does not guarantee better future results. Overlapping periods are used for exploration and are not independent observations.
Build your own price scenario.
Enter the price effect you think each factor could have. These are your assumptions, not hidden model weights.
Your combined scenario
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0.0%
Set your assumptions to compare a personal scenario with the historical range.
The tool adds the percentage effects you enter and applies the total to the latest displayed rolling-futures reference. Avoid counting the same event twice across different fields.
Questions to ask before making a decision.
What series is this?
Spot prices, futures contracts and physical cargo assessments can move differently. Match the analysis to the price you actually care about.
What could break the pattern?
Wars, sanctions, outages, recessions and policy changes can create outcomes outside the historical range.
What would change your mind?
Write down the observation, price level or date that would make you revise the scenario instead of moving the goalposts later.
How this analysis works.
News-informed futures scenarios
The scheduled model accepts only recent reports from a bounded source list, assigns one auditable pressure category per headline, reduces duplicate and single-publisher influence, and decays older evidence. It combines that signal with recent front-month momentum. The news effect is capped at one recent-volatility standard deviation and reduced when independent corroboration is limited.
A futures price is a traded contract price, not a consensus forecast. Public news may already be priced in. The model therefore publishes its evidence, adjustments and a range instead of presenting one number as certain.
Three deliberately simple futures baselines
Hold price carries the latest observation forward. Historical median applies the median return from comparable past periods. Recent trend repeats the move from the immediately preceding period. The range uses the 10th and 90th percentiles of historical returns.
Why we did not import the classroom model
The referenced Oil Price Prediction project is useful research context, but its public web interface says prediction was still under development and its oil data ends in 2023. Its documentation also shows that a naïve baseline was difficult for several more complex models to beat. We therefore built this tool independently around current site data, transparent assumptions and time-ordered checks.
Data and research
Both interactive and scheduled scenarios use the separately stored rolling front-month futures series, including a newer accepted market reference when one is available. Delayed EIA spot history remains separate on the WTI and Brent price pages and is never spliced into these futures scenarios.
Educational analysis only. Prices can move sharply and past outcomes do not establish future probabilities. This tool is not financial advice, a trading signal or an executable quote.